Mega da Virada 2022: Are there more probable results?

The countdown begins for the most important draw in Brazil and probably one of the most important in Latin America: The Mega da Virada draw, as the special draw held by the famous Mega-Sena lottery every December 31 is popularly known, which this year breaks its own records with the largest prize in the history of Brazil, some 450 million reais, equivalent to approximately 86 million dollars.

This special draw, which was first held in 2008 as Mega-Sena Especial de Final de Ano, is held annually on the last day of the year to commemorate the arrival of the new year with a new multimillionaire. It is especially popular because on this day the lottery puts in play a much larger jackpot than all other drawings during the year. In fact, the biggest Mega-Sena prize so far was the one won in the last edition of Mega da Virada, some R$378 million.

And, with such a succulent prize, it is not strange that most players want to know the best strategies to improve their chances of winning. This is why more than one has been wondering if there are more likely outcomes to win the draw. In today's post, we will review these doubts to see whether or not it is possible to improve the chances of winning.

The first thing to know: How to play Mega-Sena da Virada?

Playing Mega da Virada is practically the same as playing any other Mega-Sena draw: on your 60-number ticket (from 1 to 60), you must mark the 6 numbers that you think will be the winners of the draw. This is what is known as a single bet, although you should know that it is possible to mark more than 6 numbers by paying an additional amount: the so called multiple or combined bets, allow you to mark up to a maximum of 15 numbers per ticket. This way, you will have a better chance of matching 6 of the 15 numbers you choose.

It is also important to know that, although the most expected prize of Mega da Virada is the first prize (called Sena), which is the one that draws the 450 million reais, there are 3 main prizes, depending on the number of numbers you match:

1. Sena (6 numbers): 450 million reais
2. Quina (5 numbers): 19% of the prize
3. Quadra (4 numbers): 19% of the prize

Although the exact figures of the Quina and Quadra prize bands are not yet known (since they are assigned a percentage according to the amount collected), it should be known that any of the 3 main prizes are shared among all players who have matched the required amount of numbers in each prize. For example, last year the main prize of 378 million reais was divided between two winners, who received 189 million reais each. These were the results of the previous year:

Another aspect to keep in mind is that, unlike the other draws, if no one matches all 6 Sena numbers, the first prize is shared among the winners of Quina, or even Quadra if necessary. Therefore, it is practically guaranteed that there will be a winner.

Are there more likely outcomes to win Mega-Sena da Virada?

This question is one of the ones that generates more doubts to the players. Many times we have heard about statistical formulas that allow us to predict the results of the draws, about numbers that are more likely to win or strategies to hit the first prize.

However, the reality is that, just like any other lottery, the results of Mega da Virada are entirely due to chance: any of the 50,063,860 possible number combinations has an equal chance of winning.

The only strategy that can really help you improve your chances of winning is to play as many numbers as possible. Let's see this with a simple example:

• Probability of matching Mega-Sena by buying a single 6-number ticket: 1 in 50,063,860.
• Probability of matching Mega-Sena by buying a multiple ticket of 15 numbers: 1 in 10,003

However, we know that the more numbers you play in your bet, the higher the price will be. Therefore, if you have a moderate budget to play, the best options to have more chances of winning without spending a lot of money are to join a group or Bolão, or to participate in a fund:

• Group or Bolão: They allow you to buy several bets among many players. Each player contributes one or more shares to the group (each share has a fixed value), and with all the shares contributed, as many bets as possible are bought. All the prizes won with these bets are distributed among all the members of the group, proportionally to the amount of participations contributed by each one.
• Fund: Unlike the groups, here each player buys his bets, but accepts to share 50% of the prizes won with the rest of the group. The advantage is that you are also entitled to 50% of the prizes of all the participants in the fund, proportionally to the amount of bets you share.